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LINES OF FORCE

Strategic Horizons ... in 30 years, what trends?
International relationships
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From our strategic environment as it will be in 2040, we can only detect the premises today. Therefore, the ambition of this new edition of the geostrategic and geopolitical prospective report is to explore the major trends that should structure the international system around the middle of the century, and to identify the possible implications for France and its defence tool.

Three main trends can be identified:
- the end of Western domination
- the acceleration of globalization
- increasing instability and volatility


The complexity of the strategic context requires an increased ability to anticipate crises so that France will have, when the time comes, the military capabilities suited to its role on the international stage. In this context, the development of our force systems is a prerequisite for adapting our armed forces to the types of foreseeable future commitments.


In this respect, the 30-Year Forward Plan (PP30) is designed to inform the preparation of armament programmes, in particular by identifying the key factors and the risks of operational and technological disruptions. This technical-operational reflection must therefore be based on a prospective analysis of the international strategic environment.
More generally, the entire Ministry must also be able to take advantage of a common analysis of changes in the strategic context to conduct work of all kinds requiring a long-term perspective.


This is the whole purpose of this third edition of the Strategic Horizons report, whose ultimate aim is to make a proactive contribution to the preparation of national defence policy choices.


Based on an analysis of global trends in the strategic context, global geopolitical balances or ruptures, and the nature and intensity of risks and threats, this exercise aims to identify their consequences on France's positioning in the international system over the next three decades.

This document is the result of a multidisciplinary and open reflection that does not claim to be exhaustive. Led by the Delegation for Strategic Affairs, it has called for contributions from all the ministerial bodies involved in the preparation process for the(Armed Forces Staff, Directorate General of Armaments, General Secretariat for Administration, Armed Forces Headquarters, etc.).), but also those of many institutional and private players of reference.


This edition shows a particular effort in terms of forward-looking methodology thanks to the use of new collaborative tools. Intended to enrich the work of our allies and to feed the dialogues conducted with our main partners, Strategic Horizons attempts to shed a coherent light on our future environment. As an illustration of the efforts led by this ministry in the field of defence foresight, it aims to help everyone to "better understand" for "the future". better reflect, imagine, measure" and, above all, better answer the central question of the future nature of the challenges facing France's defence.

To find out more + follow the links ...

Séparateur
Title : LINES OF FORCE
Author (s) : Direction générale des relations internationales et de la stratégie (DGRIS)
Séparateur


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