Brennus 4.0 - N°3 - The CDEC newsletter

Surprise in war aims at inflicting a psychological shock on the adversary, in order to take away his initiative and force him to review his manoeuvre, or even his objectives. Whether it is considered at the political, strategic, operational or tactical level, surprise is consubstantial with the ascendancy of the adversary. However, its link with victory is not systematic. The astonishment effect induced by surprise is always momentary. It is only decisive if it is followed by a rapid exploitation and adapted to a favourable balance of power, temporarily and locally created.

The surprised adversary can indeed, if he has sufficient moral resources, quickly absorb the initial shock, then manoeuvre to regain the initiative, as Tsahal knew how to do during the Yom Kippur War in 1973. When it is decisive, surprise is therefore rarely the result of chance or friction. It is generally obtained by risk-taking, often based on stratagem, and it is necessarily followed by planned exploitation, without which no real operational break can be achieved.

Achieving this break is most often linked to the convergence of technical, organisational and operational innovations, allowing a definitive ascendancy. The decisive surprise is therefore the fruit of both deliberate intellectual preparation by one of the protagonists in peacetime and of the imagination and capacity for anticipation of the person who suffers it. Boldness, resilience and an aptitude for disruptive thinking are therefore indispensable qualities for the operatic leader, both to guard against surprise, to absorb it if it occurs and, above all, to plan for it using all available resources.

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