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The Scout n° 46 - March 2022
Image: Mstyslav Chernov, CC BY-SA 4.0
Hackers For Hire: Proxy Warfare in the Cyber Realm
William Akoto, Modern War Institute.
January 31, 2022.
As the use of cyber proxies by states has intensified over the past several years, William Akoto discusses in this article the various political factors behind their use. The main drivers of the use of cyber proxies are the diversity of skills available to states and the possibility for states to deny any involvement in actions undertaken through them. However, the reluctance of the civilian population to carry out this type of attack leads the author to propose limiting their use by states. To do this, he relies on a cost-benefit calculation and on the mechanism of state responsibility. He thus suggests putting in place economic sanctions, technical defence measures, or even resorting to public denunciation.
Image: Mstyslav Chernov, CC BY-SA 4.0
Keeping Pace in the Gray Zone: Three Recommendations for the U.S. Intelligence Community
Jake Harrington, Riley McCabe, War on the Rocks.
February 1, 2022
In light of recent developments on the Russian-Ukrainian border, Jake Harrington and Riley McCabe discuss the specific challenges of the "gray zone" for U.S. intelligence agencies, and how they might exploit it to their advantage. They make three recommendations. The first is to develop a consistent categorization and typology of the gray area. The second is to detect sub-threshold actions, and advocates the use of open source intelligence to foster inter-agency collaboration. Finally, the third encourages expanding the intelligence community to include non-state partners. For the authors, the implementation of these recommendations should make it possible to avoid the main pitfalls linked to the compartmentalization of intelligence as it is currently practiced.
Image: Mstyslav Chernov, CC BY-SA 4.0
Army Sees Progress with Leader-Follower Vehicle Technology
Yasmin Tadjeh, National Defense
January 21, 2022.
TheU.S. Army wants to leverage robotics to develop semi-autonomous "follower vehicle" technology. These vehicles have the ability to be driven independently from a distance, or to follow a lead vehicle. The autonomous "follower vehicles" use thePalletized Load System, which allows for long-distance cargo transport, resupply, and operations support for mobile combat units.
Image: Mstyslav Chernov, CC BY-SA 4.0
Are new and emerging technologies game-changers for smaller powers?
Michael Claeson, Zebulon Carlander, War on the Rocks.
December 29, 2021.
Using the example of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict in Nagorno-Karabagh in 2020, Michael Claeson and Zebulon Carlander of the Swedish Army illustrate the impact of new technologies on the battlefield for small states. At the dawn of the fourth industrial revolution, Sweden faces the need to redefine its priorities, to move from being a projection power to being able to compete with major powers. The authors thus recommend a progressive modernization of the army, including new technologies, with discernment. This should be based above all on decisions that are informed not by the desire to compete with the great powers in all areas, but by the analysis of a specific strategic context. Thus, it would be more interesting for smaller powers to exploit asymmetry and non-linearity to their advantage, rather than trying to imitate the great military powers.
Image: Mstyslav Chernov, CC BY-SA 4.0
Sowing darkness for military advantage: Deception
Charles B. Vandepeer, James L. Regens, Wavell Room.
January 28, 2022.
In the face of strategic competition with Russia, China or even Iran and North Korea, Charles B. Vandepeer and James L. Regens highlight the growing interest of armies indeception strategies and tactics and the need to master them today. Throughout history, this art of deception has been a force multiplier for its user, from the Trojan Horse to the Yom Kippur War. Even more than the simple lie, deception is based on the prejudices and expectations of the audience that will fall victim to it and consequently make bad decisions. For the authors, the issue today is therefore the representation of the reality of the battlefield by the decision-makers, in a context of multiplication of high-tech sensors. They therefore note a massive increase in the use of deception by the strategic rivals of Western democracies and advocate a greater use of it by the latter.
Image: Mstyslav Chernov, CC BY-SA 4.0
The Art of Pacifism in the Conduct of War
Richard Davis, The Forge.
December 22, 2021.
The author looks at the notion of pacifism and the pragmatic tools it would confer as a security guarantee for the Australian government. Traditionally, Australia has conducted many peacekeeping operations and this dynamic is reflected in the 2020 Strategic Defence Update. Three objectives are outlined: shaping Australia's strategic environment, deterring actions against Australia's interests, and responding with credible military force when required. In order to achieve these goals, the author interrogates pacifism as a security ethic and argues that this notion may have direct relevance to contemporary security objectives. For example, counterinsurgency strategies, as they pursue a goal of societal stability and good governance, demonstrate a pacifist commitment.
Image: Mstyslav Chernov, CC BY-SA 4.0
Multi Dimensional and Domain Operations (MDDO)
Martin Crilly, Alain Mears, Wavell Room.
January 26, 2022.
Martin Crilly and Alain Mears underline the anachronistic character of the analysis of war through a separation between the different domains (land, sea, air). They prefer a more appropriate typology based on the notion of influence. They distinguish three dimensions: physical influence (the three traditional domains to which space is added), informational (cyber, electromagnetic...) and cognitive (individual and collective thoughts, human reason). According to them, only a combined and not mono-dimensional approach will allow Western democracies to compete with powers such as China and Russia, which have already begun to reimagine their influence strategy from a power projection perspective.
Image: Mstyslav Chernov, CC BY-SA 4.0
The mirage of the Interconnected Battlefield
Jack Watling, Modern War Institute.
21 January 2022.
Jack Watling qualifies the fantasy of a multidimensional battlefield in which the permanent interconnection between the different domains would allow sufficient situational awareness to choose the most effective and lethal tactical options. It highlights the gap between theory and practice, the latter facing the important frictions of reality. Indeed, certain realities such as the increasing size of files and the multiplication of sensors make this interconnection more complex. Therefore, decision makers should not blindly rely on what the author perceives as a potential "mirage".
Image: Mstyslav Chernov, CC BY-SA 4.0
Greening Defence: Prioritising Climate Change for a Sustainable Future
Sarah Ashbridge, Alistair Beard, RUSI.
January 26, 2022.
As climate change threatens to alter the operational environment in which the British armed forces will be deployed, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) is seeking to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions through increased use of renewable energy. In return, the development and use of "clean" technologies will provide an operational advantage to the warfighter due to their low noise and heat signatures. With the proposals in the Climate Change and Sustainability Strategic Approach, the MoD hopes to change the mindset of the armed forces and readjust its relationship with the defense industry to implement sustainable procurement. The British Army has already set up Project Prometheus to electrify its combat equipment with solar energy.
Image: Mstyslav Chernov, CC BY-SA 4.0
Turn on the light, extinguish the fire: Israel's new way of war
Eran Ortal, War on the Rocks.
January 19, 2022.
The author highlights the limitations of Israel's current "offensive defense" strategy and recommends that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) adopt a new approach to interdicting Hamas and Hezbollah air strikes. Missile and rocket launchers would be identified and exposed by Israeli sensor networks before being destroyed by a strike system connected to the sensors. This approach, less costly than intelligence, would reduce the chances of an enemy strike hitting Israeli soil and would ensure the IDF's freedom of action in external operations thanks to the speed and precision of the sensor networks.
Image: Mstyslav Chernov, CC BY-SA 4.0
Bad Idea: Winning the Gray Zone
Sean Monaghan, 360° Defense.
December 17, 2021.
Often considered as a battle to be won, the grey zone is in fact, according to the author, a field of action that allows avoiding a more brutal confrontation. Indeed, not tolerating transgressions below the threshold of war would only increase the risk of open war. Using the example of the Sino-American competition, the author believes that American capabilities in this area give the United States a significant advantage. He therefore advocates not seeking a decisive victory in the grey zone, but rather cultivating international strategic competition there. Moreover, in order to preserve global balance, the U.S. Department of Defense must continue to prepare to win in the event of a major engagement.
Image: Mstyslav Chernov, CC BY-SA 4.0
Pressing questions: offensive cyber operations and NATO strategy
Erica D. Lonergan and Mark Montgomery, Modern War Institute.
25 January 2022.
The author examines the challenge to the Atlantic Alliance if the Russians continue to wage war in grey areas, including cyberspace. For now, NATO's policy in cyberspace has always been to protect its networks and strengthen its resilience. If offensive actions are progressively integrated into the framework of military operations, the author considers that they must also be integrated under the threshold of war. The author argues for the implementation of a common strategy within NATO in this area, which would require a strengthening of interoperability between its members, particularly in terms of intelligence. The risk of escalation that could result from this must however be considered, as well as the possibility of a more transparent dialogue between Russia and the Western powers on the subject of cyber operations.
Image: Mstyslav Chernov, CC BY-SA 4.0
On Target - Advances in Small Arms Sights
David Saw, European Security & Defence.
1 January 2022.
Although the small arms sector is sufficiently mature that technological innovation is rare, regular modifications make it possible to increase the performance of sometimes very old weapons or munitions. Numerous operations, from Vietnam to Iraq, have continually led to significant progress in materials, precision, optical, electro-optical and electronic technologies, as well as in combatant comfort. The intervention in Afghanistan has also necessitated the adaptation of small arms for firing ranges of up to 600 meters, not just 300. Future developments include innovations such asElbit Systems ' computerized Assault Rifle Combat Application System (ARCAS) . This system incorporates artificial intelligence to support an electro-optical sight and helmet-mounted eyepiece, providing soldiers with real-time combat information.
Image: Mstyslav Chernov, CC BY-SA 4.0
There's a race for Arctic-Capable drones going on, and the United States is losing
Andrew EVERSDEN, Modern War Institute
January 19, 2022,.
As the Arctic represents a strategic resource environment, power competition is intensifying and Russia is outpacing the United States in polar drones. Indeed, by 2025, the ability of Russian drones to monitor aerial, surface, and subsurface activities will far exceed that of the United States in the Arctic region. In these harsh weather conditions, drones outperform satellites and manned aircraft, especially in terms of spectral and temporal resolution. Drones also travel greater distances and faster than ground support vehicles on resupply missions.
Image: Mstyslav Chernov, CC BY-SA 4.0
Civil Affairs in the High North: How Socom's Governance Specialists Can Become Arctic-Capable
Clayton Hudak, Modern War Institute.
7 January 2022.
Access to natural resources and expanding trade routes make the Arctic a strategic environment. Russia, China and the United States are eager to strengthen their positions as key influencers. To that end, this article attempts to provide insight into the question, "How can U.S. special operations units compete with close adversaries in the polar regions?" The author points out that the lack of Arctic capabilities can be addressed by specially trained and equipped CATs(civil affairs teams) dedicated to the High North. These can provide the means to maintain access, presence and influence in a region of growing interest from China and Russia. The 92nd Civil Affairs Battalion is considered uniquely positioned to fulfill this mission.
Image: Mstyslav Chernov, CC BY-SA 4.0
Multi-Domain Integration in Defence
James Black, Alice Lynch, Kristian Gustafson, David Blagden, Pauline Paille and Fiona Quimbre, Rand Corporation.
February 9, 2022.
This study examines the concept of multi-domain integration (maritime, land, air, space, cyber, and electromagnetic) developed by the United Kingdom as a coherent theory to prepare its forces to deter, fight, and win. The complex interactions between old and new domains provide the United Kingdom with opportunities to exploit adversaries' vulnerabilities. The authors examine the cases of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. These four examples demonstrate that information superiority is critical to success in a multi-domain conflict, with particular emphasis on seizing a decisive advantage in the competitive phase or early stages of a conflict.
Image: Mstyslav Chernov, CC BY-SA 4.0
New Zealand Chief of Army Writing Competition Winner of the Civilian Category: The Impact Information Can Have on the NZ Army in the Contemporary Battlespace of Information Warfare
Thomas Sanders, Knowledge enable army.
24 January 2022.
The article analyzes the New Zealand Army's perspective on information warfare. The term information warfare has several possible meanings: hybrid warfare, grey zone warfare, active measures, soft power or public diplomacy. Information warfare is then defined as "the deliberate manipulation or use of information by one party about an enemy to influence its choices and decisions. The U.S. Department of Defense identifies five pillars of information operations: cyberspace operations, electronic warfare, psychological operations, operational security, and military deception.
Image: Mstyslav Chernov, CC BY-SA 4.0
Russia's New Way of War
Peter Apps, Wavell Room.
January 24, 2022.
The author questions the positioning and readiness of the British military in the context of Russian political, economic, diplomatic, and military pressures in Ukraine. Russia's increasing use of hybrid warfare in Ukraine reflects an escalation that follows the doctrine described in 2015 by Russian General Andrey Kartapolev. Kartapolev believes that modern conflicts will evolve from political-economic pressure to military intervention, information warfare and support of opposition forces in the target territory. The rise of tensions in Ukraine has followed this model and the threat of a conventional war is now very real according to the author, although he relativizes its scope. Nevertheless, the international character of the Russian strategy in Ukraine, which affects in particular the Baltic States and NATO countries, raises questions about the British army's preparedness for engagement.
Image: Mstyslav Chernov, CC BY-SA 4.0
Special Forces Will Simulate An Insurgency On U.S. Soil In Upcoming Unconventional Warfare Exercise
Brett Tingley, The Warzone.
January 12, 2022.
The annual Robin Sage exercise hosted by the U.S. Army's John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School (SWCS), which is the final stage of training prior to the acquisition of the U.S. Special Forces Green Beret, was held Jan. 22 through Feb. 4 in North and South Carolina. The exercise pitted the future Green Berets, who were infiltrated into guerrilla groups fighting on behalf of the U.S.-allied Pineland Nation, against guerrillas played by civilians defending the united province of Atlantica on the fictional island of Atlantica. The objective was to train the fighters in unconventional warfare, counterinsurgency, counterterrorism and reconnaissance operations. To do so, the future Green Berets had to use their negotiation, command and guerrilla combat skills in small units.
Image: Mstyslav Chernov, CC BY-SA 4.0
Green Sun: resource management in the context of ecological disaster
The film Green Sun by Richard Fleischer is an American futuristic film released in 1973. It is one of the first cinematographic works evoking an ecological catastrophe leading to the depletion of natural resources, presenting a planet with suffocating heat, overpopulated, impoverished and unequal. In 2022, the inhabitants are crammed into stairwells and eat only one food: green sunshine, a pellet supposedly made from plankton. In this socially unstable context, a policeman continues his investigation into the origins of the green sun. He draws these conclusions: the seas being too polluted, it is not made of plankton butofhuman flesh from euthanized people. Humanity regulates itself by an organized anthropophagy to avoiditsown extinction.
The Pathfinder is an open-source newsletter, produced by the editors of the CDEC's Studies and Foresight Unit. Its objective is to support the prospective work on air-land combat, conducted within the framework of the Forum de la pensée mili-terre. The short reports are a synthesis of raw information; it is up to the reader to put them into context.