The excellent organisation of the 2008 Olympic Games gives the People's Republic of China (PRC) an image of unquestionable modernity. China, which was crowned first place in the Olympics, has shown itself to be united around a common project.

Determined to gain the status of a great power[1], China has become a global economic player in the space of 30 years. On the international scene, its return illustrates Beijing's determination not to let other powers write history in its place. However, this immense country is facing social difficulties that could hinder its development.

This article proposes to assess the strengths and weaknesses of a major emerging power.

1] The sinologist Joseph Needham pointed out in the 20th century that 17th-century China enjoyed a considerable technical lead over the Western powers. He pointed out that China had brought twenty-four innovations to the West, including powder, wheelbarrows, printing, cast iron and the magnetic compass. This technological advance made it a great world power.

China a world power in the making...

The economic opening of the country, which began in 1979, aims to give it the means to regain its position as a major power.

• "It doesn't matter what color the cat is as long as it catches the mouse.[1]»

Following in the footsteps of China's reformers of 1912, Mao's goal was to restore the country to its great-power status, which had been lost in the previous century. However, when he died in 1976, the results of the Maoist development model, which was supposed to enable the Middle Kingdom to catch up, were considered disastrous.

Without calling into question the political organization of the "New China", the reformer Deng Xiaoping launched in 1979 the gradual liberalization of the market and the controlled opening of the Chinese economy to foreign investment.

Integrated into the world economic system since the initiation of the reforms, China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. Although China will probably still be developing in 2010[2], it has nevertheless become a "big" in the world economy, and a major Asian power.

• The dragon spreads its wings on the international stage

The priorities of Chinese diplomacy are the recognition of the country's status as a power and respect for its sovereignty.

• Softpower[3] in the making, China is equipping itself with the means of a great power.

Based on the concept of softpower developed by Joseph Nye, China wants to reassure the world of its intentions and show that by becoming a great power it is ready to integrate into the international community.

In the field of its cultural influence on the one hand, the seductive power of a civilization allegedly five thousand years old is undeniable. In order to promote the knowledge of the latter, Beijing began in 2004 to deploy the Confucius Institutes around the world. These institutes offer courses in Chinese language, civilization or cooking and organize exhibitions on Chinese culture. In this way, they are helping to develop China's power of seduction and to dispel fears about the country's rise to power. The Confucius Institutes are relays of influence in the service of Beijing.

On the other hand, Beijing is becoming increasingly involved in international issues and now intends to be a responsible diplomatic player.

In 1971 it was recognized as a permanent member of the UN Security Council and in 1988 it joined the UN Special Committee on Peacekeeping Operations. Since then, more than 10,000 Chinese peacekeepers have participated in missions in countries such as the Republic of Congo, Lebanon and Sudan.

In 2001, together with Russia, it established the Shanghai Organization to help fight against the Taliban, separatist and fundamentalist movements. More recently, Chinese diplomacy has played a crucial role in resolving the disagreement between the West and North Korea.

• Finally, China is becoming a maritime power[4].

The country's growing involvement in international affairs is especially noticeable in countries with proven energy potential. Thus China is investing in certain African and Latin American countries, according to the principle of "currency for raw materials", without demanding any political counterpart [5].

Wishing to guarantee the security of energy import corridors and to be able to guarantee its maritime territorial sovereignty, China is taking to the sea again by acquiring the third largest fighting fleet in the world.

...which has to overcome many handicaps in order to claim first place on the podium.

The PRC continues its ascent towards its goal, yet it must be careful not to "pull on the shoots to accelerate growth [6]".

• Rigidity of the political system can damage the country's image

China, which, as we pointed out above, is seeking to restore confidence in its interlocutors, sees all its efforts swept away by an often disastrous management of domestic crises.

The political principle of a single party does not allow the free expression of civil society on major issues. Decision-making capacity is concentrated in the hands of the central and provincial authorities of the Chinese Communist Party. The population is supervised by the party down to the neighbourhood level. Such an organization leaves little room for citizen initiative and restricts any normal form of expression of plurality. The only solution available to the dissatisfied is demonstration. As in most totalitarian countries, state reactions to popular protest are often violent. The events of June 1989 (Tian an men) and, more recently, the Tibetan crisis in the spring of 2008, are two examples of this, which tarnish the country's image for a long time.

• Economic development against a backdrop of major difficulties

China is facing challenges that could hinder the country's development.

• Exceptional but fragile economic growth.

First of all, it should be pointed out that many of China's high value-added exports are made by foreign companies established in China. Similarly, China's production of low-cost consumer goods does not always offer the best guarantees of quality. This may ultimately weaken Chinese exports to Western countries.

More seriously, the research and development sector, the guarantor of technological innovation and growth, is suffering from structural paralysis. Indeed, investment policies in this field are defined by the State according to "Soviet" planning methods and offer little flexibility in adapting to market needs.

• Moreover, energy and environmental challenges weigh heavily on China's future. Consumption of raw materials and energy resources is steadily increasing. The environmental consequences are a serious threat to the country's sustainable development. For example, very poor air quality poses a health risk to the entire population [7].

7] As for water, the way it is treated, transported and used is partly responsible for its poor quality and increasing scarcity. In the north of the country, there is a chronic water shortage, forcing the government to reactivate the old canals built by the Sui and Tang dynasties to bring water from the south of the country [8]. 8] Large cities like Beijing are depleting the water table to meet their daily consumption needs.

• Finally, Beijing must meet the demographic challenge of a population of 1.3 billion souls. On the social level, about 60% of the Chinese population lives in precarious conditions, while 10 million Chinese account for 40% of the country's wealth. It should be remembered that coastal China is the main beneficiary of economic growth, whereas rural China benefits only very partially. Social problems are aggravated by the ageing of the population caused by late birth control. In addition, unemployment among young graduates, the financing of pensions, the lack of social protection and free education for rural populations, condemned to remain in the countryside by the Hukou residence permit, which prohibits any rural exodus, are all questions that Hu Jintao has promised to answer.

In conclusion, it can be said that China has taken off, but like a kite representing a paper dragon, it is still dependent on the wind of unfinished reforms and on the brake exerted on its rise by the weight of the many challenges that Beijing still has to take up. To the foreign journalists who praise the power of the Middle Kingdom, we can say that the time has not yet come when the Chinese dragon will steal its supremacy from the American eagle.

China, like its 110-metre hurdle runner, could be forced to withdraw from the race because of its Achilles tendon: its gigantism.

1] Deng Xiao Ping

2] Senate Information Report No. 400, 15 June 2006. The Chinese population is overwhelmingly rural; this puts China in the category of developing countries.

3] The term created in 1990 by Joseph Nye, professor at Havard, refers to: "the capacity of country A to lead country B to act according to its will without resorting to threats but by its simple power of attraction (or seduction)". According to Wu Jianmin, president of the University of Foreign Affairs: "Softpower is becoming an obligation for China". Beijing is reportedly seeking to develop a new concept of soft making that would encompass softpower in foreign policy and "harmonious development" in domestic policy.

4] "Le Monde diplomatique", September 2008, pp 18-19.

5] The Chinese government does not intend to deliver a universal message to other countries but maintains that its economic and social development is a factor of peace. From a Chinese point of view, therefore, Beijing is not in contradiction with its role as a responsible diplomatic actor when it does not accompany its financial aid with political demands other than diplomatic recognition of the PRC to the detriment of Taiwan.

6] http://www.chine-nouvelle.com/outils/dictionnaire.html?dico=%E5%8A%A9 Ba miao zhu zhang. This is one of the many Chinese proverbs meaning that one must be careful not to spoil things by thwarting the laws of their development in order to achieve a quicker result.

7] Lung diseases are the leading cause of death in China.

8] The water in southern China comes from the Tibetan plateau, which may explain Beijing's "emotional" attachment to Tibet.